Models have the Democrats ahead in the House
Forecast state from 27 to 31 October 2026 for the House and the Senate.
The models and prediction markets of 27 to 31 October 2026 have the Democrats ahead in the House. The figures for a Democratic majority run from 83 percent at Decision Desk HQ to 95.1 percent in the Silver Bulletin. The average of 31 to 33 forecasts reported by Good Authority is 90 percent.
The sources disagree on the size of the majority. The model range runs from about 227 to 253 Democratic seats. Cook names 227 to 240. Sabato counts 225 Democratic seats, 193 Republican seats, and 17 toss-ups. Inside Elections expects a gain of 20 to 30 seats. A majority takes 218 seats. The Democrats need a net of three seats for that.
The generic ballot from Silver Bulletin and Decision Desk HQ is D plus 8.9. The current seat split is given, depending on the source, as 220 to 212 or 218 to 214 for the Republicans.
In the Senate the spread is wider. Race to the WH is at 78 percent, the Silver Bulletin at 77.7, Kalshi at 72.5, Polymarket at 71, Split Ticket at 70, Decision Desk HQ at 63, and The Economist at 56 percent. Good Authority reports an average of 66 percent for 31 to 33 forecasts. The Economist last cut the chance from 62 to 56 percent.
Cook expects a net of two to six Senate seats for the Democrats, Inside Elections four to six. Sabato has them narrowly ahead at 51 to 52 seats. The Democrats need 51 seats because the vice president is a Republican. In the sitting Senate 53 seats are Republican and 47 are Democratic. A net of four seats is required.
The bars are on the House pages and on election night. The seven races are on the Senate page.