The night in CET

The slider starts at 2:00. On election night it moves to the current half hour until it is moved by hand.

2 d 10 h 44 minWednesday, 4 November 2026, 0:00 CET

2:00Wednesday, 4 November. 20:00 ET, Tuesday

Choose a time, half hours from 0:00 to 7:00 CET

Large block: Pennsylvania, Maine, Michigan, Texas, Kansas. Senate Collins vs. Jackson and Talarico vs. Paxton, House PA-1, PA-7, PA-8.

IN*KY*GAVASCVTFLNHINKYNCOHWVPAMEMITXKSILNJMAMDCTDEDCALMSMOOKTNRIARAZIAWIMNNENYCOLANMSDNDWYNVMTUTIDCAWAORHIAKAK (Aleutians)

Dark means polls closed, fully or mostly. Bold means a state with a key race. A star marks part of a state.

Seats right now

Occupied seats in the sitting Congress.

53 : 47Sitting Senate seats, Republicans to Democrats

218 : 214Sitting House seats, Republicans to Democrats. Plus 1 independent and 2 vacant seats. Another source: 220 : 212.

Senate map

Outline map of the United States. The color is the sitting seat count. Alaska is drawn at 42 percent. Hawaii is at the same scale, without the northwestern islands.

Split means the two seats belong to different sides. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are independents and count with the Democrats in the 53 : 47 line. State table: The Green Papers, read on 1 November 2026. Names of the independents: Senate Periodical Press Gallery, 119th Congress.

House map

Outline map of the United States. The color is the sitting seat count. Alaska is drawn at 42 percent. Hawaii is at the same scale, without the northwestern islands.

The color follows the larger seat count in the state. Minnesota and Colorado are 4 : 4. Total: 214 Democrats, 1 independent in California, 218 Republicans, 2 vacant seats in Florida and Texas. Another source: 220 : 212. State table: The Green Papers, read on 1 November 2026.

Forecasts

218Seats for a majority

netto +3Democrats need

D +8,9Generic ballot (Silver Bulletin, DDHQ)

227–240D seats according to Cook

Chance of a Democratic majority. Blue is the Democrats, the light ground is the Republicans, the mark is 50 percent. As of 27 October to 1 November 2026, 10:40 CET.

Silver BulletinModel, 29 Oct

95.1 %

Race to the WHModel, 31 Oct

95 %

PolymarketMarket, 1 Nov, 10:40 CET

95 %

Split TicketModel, about 31 Oct*

91 %

KalshiMarket, about 30 Oct

91 %

Decision Desk HQModel, 31 Oct

83 %

Avg. of 31–33 forecastsGood Authority

90 %

Every model has the Democrats ahead. They disagree only on the size of the majority (about 227–253 seats). Inside Elections expects +20 to +30 seats. Sabato counts 225 D, 193 R, and 17 toss-ups.

Senate calculator

Seven races are expected to decide the majority. Set D, a question mark, or R, and see who reaches 51 seats.

D 47open 7R 46

Open. The Democrats still need 4 of 7

MaineCollins (R, incumbent) vs. Jackson (D)Toss-up (Cook), Lean D (DDHQ). Polymarket: Jackson 69%

TexasPaxton (R) vs. Talarico (D), open R seatToss-up (Cook), Tilt D (Inside). Polymarket: Talarico 71%

OhioHusted (R) vs. Brown (D), special electionToss-up (Cook), Tilt D (Inside). Polymarket: Brown 74%

AlaskaSullivan (R, incumbent) vs. Peltola (D)Toss-up (Cook), Lean D (Sabato). Polymarket: Peltola 73%

IowaHinson (R) vs. Turek (D), open R seatToss-up. Polymarket: Hinson 55%

KansasMarshall (R, incumbent) vs. Hamilton (D)Toss-up. Polymarket: Hamilton 52%

MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R), open D seatLean D. Polymarket: El-Sayed 79%

Assumptions: every other seat stays with the current party, and North Carolina goes to the Democrats (Likely D). The base is then 47 D and 46 R. At 50:50 the Republican vice president decides, so the Democrats need 51. Independents count with the Democrats.