House of Representatives
The models have the Democrats ahead. The size of the majority is open.
A majority in the House takes 218 seats. The Democrats need a net of three seats for that. The generic ballot from Silver Bulletin and Decision Desk HQ is D plus 8.9.
The chances of a Democratic majority in the tracked models and markets lie between 83 and 95.1 percent. The average of 31 to 33 forecasts reported by Good Authority is 90 percent. The sources disagree on the size: the model range runs from about 227 to 253 Democratic seats. Cook names 227 to 240. Sabato counts 225 D, 193 R, and 17 toss-ups. Inside Elections expects a gain of 20 to 30 seats.
The current seat split is given, depending on the source, as 220 to 212 or 218 to 214 for the Republicans.
A prediction market is not a poll. It reflects bets. The starred Split Ticket figures were checked only through social media. Figures as of 27 to 31 October 2026.
Seats right now
Occupied seats in the sitting Congress.
House map
Outline map of the United States. The color is the sitting seat count. Alaska is drawn at 42 percent. Hawaii is at the same scale, without the northwestern islands.
The color follows the larger seat count in the state. Minnesota and Colorado are 4 : 4. Total: 214 Democrats, 1 independent in California, 218 Republicans, 2 vacant seats in Florida and Texas. Another source: 220 : 212. State table: The Green Papers, read on 1 November 2026.
Chance of a Democratic majority. Blue is the Democrats, the light ground is the Republicans, the mark is 50 percent. As of 27 October to 1 November 2026, 10:40 CET.
Every model has the Democrats ahead. They disagree only on the size of the majority (about 227–253 seats). Inside Elections expects +20 to +30 seats. Sabato counts 225 D, 193 R, and 17 toss-ups.