Where it can take time
States that keep counting after election night, and when the majority was settled from 2018 to 2024.
Depending on whether a state reports election-day votes or mail ballots first, a party can look ahead early. A later change of lead is normal.
A decision still on election night has happened since 2018 only with a clear lead. The current forecasts expect a wider gap than in 2020 through 2024. Whether that is enough shows only in the seats that have been counted.
- California
- Mail ballots count if they arrive by 10 November. Several close House races stay open for days.
- Alaska
- First preferences on election night. Ranked-choice counting only on 18 November, certification on 25 November. A government lawsuit could extend that.
- Maine
- Also ranked choice. Whether another round is needed shows after one or two days.
- PA, WI
- Mail ballots may be prepared only on election day. Some counties report late.
- Nevada
- Ballots postmarked on time are counted afterward. In 2022 the Senate decision came only on 12 November.
- Runoff
- Georgia on 1 December, Louisiana (House) on 12 December, if needed.
When was it decided?
| Election | House | Senate |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | election nightElection night, 4:58 CET (ABC), clear lead | election nightElection night |
| 2020 | later+7 days, 10 Nov (AP) | later5 January 2021, Georgia runoffs |
| 2022 | later+8 days, 16 Nov (AP) | later+4 days, 12 Nov (Nevada) |
| 2024 | later+8 days, 13 Nov (AP) | election nightElection night |
A decision on election night has happened since 2018 only with a clear lead. The current forecasts expect a wider gap than in 2020 through 2024.