Sources and how to read them
Where the figures come from, and what a probability means here.
The forecasts on this website are the state of 27 to 31 October 2026. They are probabilities, not results. At a 75 percent chance the underdog wins about one time in four.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi reflect bets, not polls. Split Ticket figures, marked with a star in the tables, were checked only through social media.
The closing times follow the overview at electiontracker.live. The note that counts can take days rests on the PBS account and on the calls of past elections.
The delivered page is static HTML from a build. The Markdown sources are not in the web root.