Seven core races decide whether the Democrats reach 51 seats.
In the sitting Senate the Republicans hold 53 seats and the Democrats 47. Those are the occupied seats. The vice president is a Republican. At 50:50 his vote decides, so the Democrats need 51 seats. That is a net of four seats.
The calculation on this page leaves seven races open and sets the other seats to the current party. North Carolina is already counted with the Democrats as Likely D. That produces the base of 47 D and 46 R. Independents count with the Democrats.
The models are farther apart than for the House. The Economist last cut the chance of a Democratic majority from 62 to 56 percent. The average at Good Authority, built from 31 to 33 forecasts, is 66 percent. Cook expects a net of two to six seats for the Democrats, Inside Elections four to six. Sabato has them narrowly ahead at 51 to 52 seats.
The bars for the individual models are on election night. The seven races can also be set by hand to D or R there.
Seats right now
Occupied seats in the sitting Congress.
53 : 47Sitting Senate seats, Republicans to Democrats
Senate map
Outline map of the United States. The color is the sitting seat count. Alaska is drawn at 42 percent. Hawaii is at the same scale, without the northwestern islands.
DemocratsIndependentsRepublicanssplit state
Split means the two seats belong to different sides. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are independents and count with the Democrats in the 53 : 47 line. State table: The Green Papers, read on 1 November 2026. Names of the independents: Senate Periodical Press Gallery, 119th Congress.
Map of the tracked Senate races
Gold marks a race with a tracked individual forecast. The other states have no forecast row of their own in this data set. The map shows the place. The list shows the rating.
tracked individual forecastno forecast row of its own
Maine Toss-up (Cook), Lean D (DDHQ). Jackson 69%.
Texas Toss-up (Cook), Tilt D (Inside). Talarico 71%.
Ohio Toss-up (Cook), Tilt D (Inside). Brown 74%.
Alaska Toss-up (Cook), Lean D (Sabato). Peltola 73%.
Iowa Toss-up. Hinson 55%.
Kansas Toss-up. Hamilton 52%.
Michigan Lean D. El-Sayed 79%.
Starting point with the core races open: 47 D, 7 open, 46 R. Open. The Democrats still need 4 of 7.
MaineCollins (R, incumbent) vs. Jackson (D)Toss-up (Cook), Lean D (DDHQ). Polymarket: Jackson 69%
TexasPaxton (R) vs. Talarico (D), open R seatToss-up (Cook), Tilt D (Inside). Polymarket: Talarico 71%
OhioHusted (R) vs. Brown (D), special electionToss-up (Cook), Tilt D (Inside). Polymarket: Brown 74%
AlaskaSullivan (R, incumbent) vs. Peltola (D)Toss-up (Cook), Lean D (Sabato). Polymarket: Peltola 73%
IowaHinson (R) vs. Turek (D), open R seatToss-up. Polymarket: Hinson 55%
KansasMarshall (R, incumbent) vs. Hamilton (D)Toss-up. Polymarket: Hamilton 52%
MichiganEl-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R), open D seatLean D. Polymarket: El-Sayed 79%
Assumptions: every other seat stays with the current party, and North Carolina goes to the Democrats (Likely D). The base is then 47 D and 46 R. At 50:50 the Republican vice president decides, so the Democrats need 51. Independents count with the Democrats.