In Iowa, bets and the model see different favorites

In Iowa the prediction market and the model disagree on the favorite. On Polymarket the Republican Ashley Hinson is at 55 percent. The model from Decision Desk HQ gives the Democrat Turek 55 percent. Polymarket figures are bets, retrieved on 1 November 2026 around 10:40 CET. Decision Desk HQ dates its figures to 31 October 2026.

In Ohio and Alaska the bets for the Democrats are up three points. Sherrod Brown is at 74 percent in Ohio, previously 71. Mary Peltola is at 73 percent in Alaska, previously 70.

The other races on Polymarket:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 79 percent
• Texas: James Talarico (D) 71 percent, unchanged
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 69 percent, previously 70
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) 52 percent, previously 54

The Decision Desk HQ model has the Democrats ahead in all seven races, but more narrowly: Kansas 53, Iowa 55, Ohio 56, Texas 59, Alaska 60, Maine 61, and Michigan 74 percent. It lists five of the seven as toss-ups, and Maine and Michigan as Lean D.

For the Senate majority as a whole, the bets on Polymarket stand at 72 percent for the Democrats, previously 71. Decision Desk HQ stays at 63 percent. Both are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page. The bars are on election night.