Analysts in Europe, Asia and Russia expect a divided government after the election, they disagree on how much power Trump retains

Experts outside the US have published their first assessments of what happens after the congressional election. The basis is projections according to which the Democrats win the Senate and the House of Representatives. There is no official final result yet. What the analyses have in common: from 3 January 2027, the president and Congress govern against each other. They disagree on what this means for Trump's power abroad.

Europe: Congress as an ally, Trump as a risk. Almut Möller of the Brussels-based European Policy Centre (4 November) expects the new Congress to support aid for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. A weakened president could, however, play out his power in foreign policy and accommodate Russia in order to be seen as the one who ends wars. Her colleague Javier Carbonell writes that Trump retains the veto and foreign policy powers. Europeans should not mistake the change for a “return to transatlantic normality”.

Asia: less room for deals. In a Reuters report published by Investing.com (4 November), economists consider it possible that Japan and South Korea will fulfill their investment pledges of 550 and 350 billion dollars more slowly. Economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero (Natixis) expects Congress to give Trump less of a free hand in deals with Beijing, the trade truce with China expires in January. Former Indian diplomat Rajiv Bhatia of the Gateway House institute warns that this will not automatically make Trump more conciliatory.

In South Korea, Shin Beom-chul of the Sejong Institute says, according to Korea Times (4 November, 08:16 CET), that Trump could become a lame duck sooner than expected. He asks: “Would Kim want to meet a weakened Trump?” In China, Chen Dongxiao, president of the state-run Shanghai Institute for International Studies, expects no fundamental shock to relations, according to China Times (4 November, 07:44 CET, based on an interview with The Paper). The exception is arms sales to Taiwan, where pressure from both parties could grow.

Russia: presidency effectively over. Viktoria Zhuravleva of the Moscow institute IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences says in an interview with Interfax (4 November, 11:30 CET) that such a defeat means “that the presidency of D. Trump is over”. She expects budget battles, possible shutdowns and investigations up to an impeachment. Trump will concentrate on foreign policy, and aid for Ukraine will become a bargaining chip in the budget.

Impeachment: possible, but hardly successful. ZDFheute (Bastian Hartig, 4 November, 06:29 CET) considers a two-thirds majority for a conviction in the Senate unlikely, though things could look different in the case of Defense Secretary Hegseth. The House of Representatives could, however, set conditions through the budget, for example against a troop withdrawal from Europe. The Brazilian agency Folhapress, published in Jornal de Brasília (4 November, 18:08 CET), sees investigations as the Democrats' real weapon with a view to 2028. A proceeding that paralyzes Congress could harm them.

These are the assessments of the respective experts and media. The dates up to January are under Reports, what the new Congress can do is in the timeline.