Polymarket lowers Talarico in Texas from 75.5 to 72.5 percent, Ohio and Alaska also slightly weaker

On Polymarket, Democrat James Talarico now stands at 72.5 percent in the Texas Senate race. The report of 2 November, 18:05 CET, gave 75.5 percent. Republican Ken Paxton is at 27.5 percent. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, last updated on 3 November 2026 around 17:38 CET, retrieved around 18:45 CET. These are bets, not polls.

In two other races the Democrats are slightly lower on Polymarket than last reported, by 2.5 points each:

• Ohio: Sherrod Brown 71.5 percent, previously 74, last updated around 13:36 CET
• Alaska: Mary Peltola 72.5 percent, previously 75

On Kalshi, Talarico is at 75.5 percent, Brown in Ohio at 69.5 percent and the Democrats in Alaska at 70.5 percent, also the midpoint between bid and ask, retrieved around 18:45 CET. In Texas, Kalshi thus puts the Democrat three points higher than Polymarket, in Ohio and Alaska two points lower.

There is no change of favorite. The Democrats remain ahead in all three races on both markets. For the Senate majority, Polymarket stays at 76.5 percent for the Democrats. The Decision Desk HQ model gives Talarico 62, Brown 54 and Peltola 61 percent, as of 2 November. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars at election night.