Kalshi lowers Talarico in Texas from 75.5 to 69.5 percent

On Kalshi, Democrat James Talarico now stands at 69.5 percent in the Texas Senate race. The report of 3 November, 18:55 CET, gave 75.5 percent for Kalshi. Republican Ken Paxton is at 31.5 percent. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, retrieved on 3 November 2026 around 21:45 CET. These are bets, not polls.

On Polymarket, Talarico stays at 72.5 percent, Paxton at 27.5 percent, retrieved at the same time. Three hours ago Kalshi was three points above Polymarket, now it is three points below.

There is no change of favorite. Talarico remains ahead on both markets. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown (D) is at 70.5 percent on Kalshi, previously 69.5 percent, retrieved at the same time. The Decision Desk HQ model gives Talarico 62 percent, as of 2 November. These are probabilities, not results.

On election night, most polls in Texas close at 2:00 CET, details in the timeline. The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on the election night page.