Kalshi raises Talarico in Texas back from 69.5 to 75.5 percent

On Kalshi, Democrat James Talarico is back at 75.5 percent in the Texas Senate race. The report of 3 November, 21:50 CET, gave 69.5 percent for Kalshi. Republican Ken Paxton is at 25.5 percent. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, retrieved on 3 November 2026 around 22:45 CET. These are bets, not polls.

Kalshi is thus back at the level of 18:45 CET. Within about four hours, the value fell by six points and then rose by six points.

On Polymarket, Talarico stays at 72.5 percent, Paxton at 27.5 percent, last updated around 17:38 CET, retrieved around 22:45 CET. Kalshi thus once again puts the Democrat three points higher than Polymarket.

There is no change of favorite. Talarico remains ahead on both markets. For the Senate majority, Polymarket and Kalshi remain at 76.5 percent each for the Democrats, retrieved around 22:40 CET. The Decision Desk HQ model gives Talarico 62 percent, as of 2 November. These are probabilities, not results.

On election night, most polls in Texas close at 2:00 CET, details in the timeline. The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on the election night page.