Polymarket raises the Democrats' Senate chance from 72.5 to 76.5 percent

On Polymarket, the Democrats' chance of a majority in the Senate now stands at 76.5 percent. The report of 3 November, 8:55 CET, gave 72.5 percent. The Republicans stand at 23.5 percent. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, last updated on 3 November 2026 at 9:38 CET, retrieved around 9:45 CET. These are bets, not polls.

On Kalshi, the value for the Democrats remains at 73.5 percent, retrieved at the same time. The two markets are thus three points apart, previously it was one.

For comparison, the models for the Senate: Decision Desk HQ gives the Democrats 65 percent, Split Ticket 77 percent, both as of 2 November, Poliwave 85 percent, as of 3 November. These are probabilities, not results.

The bars are on the Senate page and at election night.