Polymarket now has Turek ahead in Iowa, Kalshi raises the Democrats' Senate chance to 76.5 percent

On Polymarket, Democrat Josh Turek is now ahead in the Iowa Senate race. He stands at 52 percent, Republican Ashley Hinson at 48 percent. The report of 3 November, 8:55 CET, gave 53.5 percent for Hinson on Polymarket. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, last updated on 3 November 2026 around 16:36 CET, retrieved around 16:45 CET. These are bets, not polls.

On Kalshi, Turek remains at 51.5 percent, Hinson at 49.5 percent, retrieved at the same time. Both markets thus see the same favorite in Iowa. Both still see the race close to 50 to 50.

For the Senate majority, Kalshi now stands at 76.5 percent for the Democrats, previously 73.5 percent. Polymarket remains at 76.5 percent. The two markets are thus level, previously they were three points apart.

For comparison: the Decision Desk HQ model gives Turek 53 percent and the Democrats 65 percent in the Senate, as of 2 November. Sabato's Crystal Ball has Hinson ahead in Iowa. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars at election night.