Kalshi has Turek ahead in Iowa for the first time, Polymarket stays with Hinson

On Kalshi, Democrat Josh Turek is now ahead in the Iowa Senate race. He stands at 51.5 percent, Republican Ashley Hinson at 49.5 percent. The report of 2 November, 13:50 CET, gave 52.5 percent for Hinson on Kalshi. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, retrieved on 3 November 2026 between 8:40 and 8:50 CET. These are bets, not polls.

On Polymarket, Hinson remains ahead, at 53.5 percent to 47.5 percent for Turek, unchanged since the previous day. Retrieved at the same time. The two markets thus name different favorites in Iowa. Both see the race close to 50 to 50.

The Decision Desk HQ model gives Turek 53 percent, as of “Nov 2, 3:04 PM”. The last poll by the New York Times and Siena College had him ahead by 48 to 47 percent, within the margin of error.

For the Senate majority, Kalshi stands at 73.5 percent for the Democrats, previously 72 percent, Polymarket still at 72.5 percent. Decision Desk HQ raises the Democrats' Senate chance in the same run from 64 to 65 percent. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars at election night.