In Mexico, 64 percent expect Trump to emerge weakened from the congressional election

The Mexican newspaper El Financiero published its monthly survey for October on 3 November 2026. For the first time, it includes questions on the congressional election in the US. The author is the newspaper's head of polling, Alejandro Moreno.

Methodology. Telephone survey of 800 adults in Mexico from 15 to 20 October 2026, random sample of landline and mobile numbers in all 32 states. According to El Financiero, the margin of error is plus/minus 3.5 percentage points at 95 percent confidence.

On the congressional election:

• 38 percent are very or somewhat interested in the election. According to the newspaper, this is similar to before the 2024 presidential election.
• 64 percent expect President Trump to be weakened after the election.
• 20 percent expect him to emerge strengthened.
• 16 percent have no opinion.

On relations with the US:

• 34 percent consider the relationship between President Sheinbaum and Trump to be good or very good, previously it was 42 percent.
• 54 percent think the negotiations on the T-MEC (USMCA) trade agreement are going well, previously 60 percent.
• 35 percent want closer cooperation with the US in the fight against organised crime (January 23 percent, July 28 percent). 59 percent mainly want to defend sovereignty and keep the US out (January 76 percent).
• 64 percent reject a US military operation against cartels in Mexico, 33 percent support it. In January it was 78 to 21 percent.

The article does not give a month for the comparison figures on the Sheinbaum–Trump relationship and on the trade agreement. Sheinbaum's approval rating stood at 69 percent in October (El Financiero, 3 November 2026).

The survey reflects expectations in Mexico, not a forecast of the election outcome. Earlier reports on Mexico's government and press are available under Reports, the forecasts on the Senate and House of Representatives pages.