Race to the WH raises the Democrats' Senate chance to 81.2 percent, 96.2 percent in the House of Representatives

The Race to the WH model gives the Democrats an 81.2 percent chance of a majority in the Senate. The page gives its last update as 3 November 2026, 0:12 Eastern Time, i.e. 6:12 CET, retrieved around 19:30 CET. As of 31 October it was 78 percent. According to the site, the model simulates the election 50,000 times with every update.

For the House of Representatives, Race to the WH gives the Democrats 96.2 percent. On average the model expects 236.5 seats for the Democrats and 198.5 for the Republicans. A majority takes 218 seats. This page shows no update date; according to the site, the model recalculates every weekday. As of 31 October it was 95 percent.

In the Senate, Race to the WH is thus close to PollingForecast.com at 82 percent and FiftyPlusOne at 79 percent, both as of 3 November, and well above Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent, as of 2 November. The betting markets on Polymarket and Kalshi were last at 76.5 percent each. These are probabilities, not results.

This site could not retrieve a newer value from The Economist than 56 percent for the Senate, as of 27 October.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the bars on election night.