PollingForecast.com gives the Democrats 82 percent in the Senate and 90 percent in the House of Representatives

Another forecast model has been added. PollingForecast.com gives the Democrats an 82 percent chance of a majority in the Senate and 90 percent in the House of Representatives. The site gives its status as 2 November 2026, 23:00 CET (17:00 East Coast time), retrieved on 3 November around 15:45 CET.

In the Senate, according to the Senate page, the Republicans win in 15 percent of the simulations. In 3 percent an independent decides the majority. On average the model expects 53 seats for the Democrats, between 50 and 56 in 80 percent of cases. In the House of Representatives it expects 242 seats for the Democrats and 193 for the Republicans.

For the seven Senate races, the site gives the Democrats these chances:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed 87 percent, Likely D
• Maine: Troy Jackson 80 percent, Likely D
• Texas: James Talarico 71 percent, Leans D
• Alaska: Mary Peltola 71 percent, Leans D
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown 70 percent, Leans D
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton 65 percent, Leans D
• Iowa: Josh Turek 61 percent, Leans D

According to the site, the model takes into account the usual deviation of individual polling institutes, past polling errors and fundamentals. It says it was blind-tested on seven past elections in the USA. The site does not say who is behind it. According to the site, the Senate flips if the polls overestimate the Democrats by 3.5 points, the House of Representatives at 5.0 points.

In the Senate the model thus lies above Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent (as of 2 November) and above FiftyPlusOne at 79 percent (as of 3 November). In the House of Representatives it lies below most other models. Around 15:40 CET the betting markets for the Senate stood at 76.5 percent on Polymarket and 73.5 percent on Kalshi. These are probabilities, not results.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the bars on election night.