Poliwave raises the Democrats' Senate chance from 77 to 85 percent

The forecast model Poliwave now gives the Democrats an 85 percent chance of a Senate majority. The report of 2 November gave 77 percent. The model gives the Republicans 12 percent. In 3 percent of simulations independents decide the majority, previously it was 8 percent. The run ended on 3 November 2026 at 4:29 CET, retrieved around 7:50 CET.

In the House of Representatives, the Democrats' chance rises from 89 to more than 99 percent. On average, Poliwave expects 53 Senate seats for the Democrats, between 50 and 55 in 80 percent of simulations. In the House of Representatives the average is 233 seats, between 224 and 245 in 80 percent of simulations.

For the seven Senate races, the page gives a rating and the expected lead in points:

• Michigan: Likely D, El-Sayed ahead by 6.8 points
• Texas: Lean D, Talarico ahead by 4.5 points
• Maine: Lean D, Jackson ahead by 4.4 points
• Ohio: Lean D, Brown ahead by 4.0 points
• Kansas: Lean D, Hamilton ahead by 2.8 points, previously toss-up at 0.6 points
• Alaska: Lean D, Peltola ahead by 2.7 points
• Iowa: Toss-up, Turek ahead by 0.7 points

The page does not show probabilities for individual races in this run. Poliwave itself points out that its probabilities have not been tested against past elections.

In the Senate, Poliwave is thus above Decision Desk HQ at 64 percent and Split Ticket at 77 percent, both as of 2 November. These are probabilities, not results.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the seven races on the Senate page.