FiftyPlusOne publishes its final forecast and puts the Democrats at 79 percent in the Senate

The forecast model of FiftyPlusOne has published its final forecast for the midterms. It gives the Democrats a 79 percent chance of a majority in the Senate and 99 percent in the House of Representatives. For both chambers together it also gives 79 percent. The post by G. Elliott Morris and Katie Marriner is dated 3 November 2026, last updated around 11:02 CET, retrieved around 12:45 CET.

This site has not covered the model before. Morris gives the same order of magnitude in his newsletter Strength In Numbers, as of 3 November, around 12:08 CET.

FiftyPlusOne also converts the ratings of Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato into probabilities. On average this gives the Democrats about 76 percent for the Senate and a median of 52 seats. In the House of Representatives the median for the Democrats is 235 (Cook), 236 (Inside Elections) and 241 seats (Sabato), depending on the rater. With a polling error like in 2020 or 2024, the Democrats could end up with only 50 Senate seats, according to the post.

Values for the seven individual Senate races are not in the freely accessible parts. They are not reproduced here.

In the Senate, FiftyPlusOne is thus close to Split Ticket at 77 percent (as of 2 November) and above Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent (as of 2 November). These are probabilities, not results.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the bars on election night.