New model by Peter Dugas gives the Democrats 74 percent in the Senate and 96 percent in the House of Representatives

Another forecast model has been added. In his newsletter Regulatory Intelligence, Peter Dugas gives the Democrats a 74 percent chance of a majority in the Senate and 96 percent in the House of Representatives. The post calls itself the final forecast, as of 3 November 2026, last changed around 13:12 CET, retrieved around 14:55 CET.

At the previous update on 29 October, the Senate value was 68 percent and the value for the House of Representatives was also 96 percent. On average the model expects 52 Senate seats for the Democrats, between 49 and 55 in 80 percent of cases. In the House of Representatives it expects 242 seats, between 228 and 255 in 80 percent of cases.

For the seven Senate races, the post gives the Democrats these chances:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed 81 percent, Lean D
• Texas: James Talarico 73 percent, Lean D
• Maine: Troy Jackson 72 percent, Lean D
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown 68 percent, Lean D
• Alaska: Mary Peltola 65 percent, Toss-up
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton 65 percent, Toss-up
• Iowa: Josh Turek 53 percent, Toss-up

According to the post, the model combines ratings, polls, nationwide party preference, presidential approval and past midterms. The chamber values come from a simulation in which polling errors shift many races at once. The post does not say whether the model was tested against past elections. It is the model of a single person.

In the Senate it thus lies between Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent (as of 2 November) and FiftyPlusOne at 79 percent (as of 3 November). Around 14:40 CET the betting markets stood at 76.5 percent on Polymarket and 73.5 percent on Kalshi. These are probabilities, not results.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the bars on election night.