DaveManuel.com's model gives the Democrats 74 percent in the Senate and 93 percent in the House of Representatives

Another forecast model has been added. The DaveManuel.com model gives the Democrats a 74 percent chance of a majority in the Senate and 93 percent in the House of Representatives. The page gives its status as 3 November 2026, 13:45 Eastern Time, i.e. 19:45 CET, retrieved around 20:45 CET.

In the Senate, according to the site, the Republicans win in 24 percent of the 10,000 simulations, and in 2 percent neither side reaches a majority on its own. On average the model expects 52 seats for the Democrats. In the House of Representatives it expects 234 seats for the Democrats and 201 for the Republicans, with a 90 percent range of 216 to 257 seats for the Democrats.

For the seven Senate races, the site gives these chances:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 82 percent
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 79 percent
• Texas: James Talarico (D) 67 percent
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) 66 percent
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) 64 percent
• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) 56 percent
• Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) 51 percent

Iowa is thus the only one of the seven races in which the model sees the Republicans ahead, by a very narrow margin. The betting markets on Polymarket and Kalshi see Josh Turek (D) narrowly ahead there.

According to its own description, the model combines the nationwide generic ballot, the Cook Partisan Voting Index, an incumbency bonus, the assessments of the rating services and polls. According to its own description, it has not been tested against past elections.

In the Senate, the model is thus above Decision Desk HQ at 65 percent, as of 2 November, and below Race to the WH at 81.2 percent and PollingForecast.com at 82 percent. The betting markets for the Senate stood at 76.5 percent each on Polymarket and Kalshi around 20:40 CET. These are probabilities, not results.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the bars on election night.