Bets see Talarico further ahead in Texas, Polymarket rises from 71 to 75.5 percent

On Polymarket the Democrat James Talarico has risen to 75.5 percent in the Senate race in Texas. The report from 4:05 CET gave 71 percent. The Republican Ken Paxton is at 24.5 percent. The figures are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, last updated on 2 November 2026 at 17:29 CET, retrieved around 17:55 CET. The market itself shows a gain of 5 points over the last 24 hours. They are bets, not polls.

On Kalshi Talarico is at 69.5 percent, also the midpoint between bid and ask, retrieved around 18:00 CET. In Texas the two markets are thus six points apart.

Talarico was already the favourite on both markets before; there is no change of favourite. The last poll by The New York Times and Siena College had him ahead by 50 to 43 percent. The model from Decision Desk HQ gives him 61 percent, as of 2 November, the last model from Split Ticket 81 percent.

The other Polymarket prices have moved by at most two points since the morning. For the majority in the Senate, Polymarket still stands at 72.5 percent for the Democrats. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are under Senate, the bars on election night.