Bets see Jackson more clearly ahead in Maine, Kalshi gives back its edge for Hamilton in Kansas

On Polymarket the Democrat Troy Jackson has risen to 73.5 percent in Maine. At 8:45 CET it was 67.5 percent. The figure is the midpoint between bid and ask, retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 10:40 CET. These are bets, not polls.

On Kalshi Jackson is unchanged at 68.5 percent. That leaves five points between the two markets in Maine. Incumbent Susan Collins (R) is the underdog on both markets.

In Kansas, the Democrat Adam Hamilton is at 53.5 percent on Kalshi. The 8:56 CET report gave 60 percent for Kalshi. On Polymarket Hamilton is unchanged at 52.5 percent. Both markets once again see the race against incumbent Roger Marshall (R) as almost even and narrowly open.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed (D) is at 72.5 percent on Kalshi; early in the morning around 4:05 CET it was 76. On Polymarket he remains at 81.5 percent.

All figures come from the public interfaces of the two markets, retrieved on 2 November 2026 between 10:39 and 10:42 CET. The other races have moved by at most two points since the morning. For the Senate majority, Polymarket stands at 72.5 percent for the Democrats. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on election night.