Polymarket and Kalshi disagree on Kansas, Hinson gains in Iowa

The two big prediction markets see the Kansas Senate race differently. On Kalshi the Democrat Adam Hamilton is at 60 percent; the market shows a gain of 9 points. On 2 November around 4:05 CET Kalshi still stood at 50 to 50. On Polymarket Hamilton is at 52.5 percent. Both figures are bets, not polls, retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 8:45 CET.

The 7:55 CET report gave 61.5 percent for Kansas on Polymarket, read from the price history. The price from the Polymarket interface, the midpoint between bid and ask, is now at 52.5 percent. Hamilton remains narrowly ahead on both markets.

In Iowa the Republican Ashley Hinson is at 58.5 percent on Polymarket and at 53 percent on Kalshi. The 7:55 CET report gave 53.5 percent for Polymarket.

More Polymarket prices, as of 2 November 2026, 8:45 CET:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 81.5 percent, previously 78.5
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 67.5 percent, previously 71

For the Senate majority, Polymarket stands at 72.5 percent for the Democrats. The Decision Desk HQ model has Kansas at 50 to 50 and Iowa at 53 percent for Turek. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on election night.