Bets see Hamilton more clearly ahead in Kansas, Iowa gets tighter

On Polymarket the Kansas Senate race has moved significantly. The Democrat Adam Hamilton is at 61.5 percent. On 1 November at 4:00 CET it was 51.5 percent. The figures come from the price history of the Kansas market, as of 2 November 2026, 7:35 CET. These are bets, not polls.

In Iowa the Republican Ashley Hinson is still ahead, but narrowly. On the Iowa market she is at 53.5 percent, the Democrat Josh Turek at 47.5 percent. As of 2 November 2026, 7:40 CET.

The early-morning reports gave 53 percent for Kansas and 59 percent for Hinson in Iowa. These figures came from the overview page, which lagged behind the individual markets. According to the price history, Hamilton was already at 59.5 percent at 4:00 CET.

In Michigan Abdul El-Sayed (D) is at 78.5 percent, with no movement over the last 24 hours. As of 2 November 2026, 7:35 CET, according to the Michigan market.

Kalshi prices could not be retrieved at this check. The Decision Desk HQ model has been unchanged since 1 November: Kansas 54, Iowa 55, Michigan 73 percent for the Democrats. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on election night.