Bets have Hamilton clearly ahead in Kansas, Polymarket rises from 52.5 to 62.5 percent

On Polymarket the Democrat Adam Hamilton has risen to 62.5 percent in the Kansas Senate race. This morning's report gave 52.5 percent. Incumbent Roger Marshall (R) is at 37.5 percent. The values are the midpoint between bid and ask from the public interface, last updated on 2 November 2026 at 18:03 CET, retrieved around 19:05 CET. The market shows a gain of 10 points over the last 24 hours. These are bets, not polls.

Hamilton was already narrowly the favorite on Polymarket, so the favorite has not changed. The Decision Desk HQ model has the race at 50 to 50, as of 2 November. The last New York Times and Siena College poll had Hamilton ahead 49 to 44 percent, with a third candidate, Graham, at 4 percent.

In Texas the Democrat James Talarico has risen to 75.5 percent on Kalshi. At 18:00 CET it was 69.5 percent. This too is the midpoint between bid and ask, retrieved around 19:05 CET. Kalshi is thus level with Polymarket in Texas, which also shows 75.5 percent.

The other Polymarket prices have moved by at most two points since the last report. For the Senate majority, Polymarket remains at 72.5 percent for the Democrats. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars at election night.