Bets move towards Hinson in Iowa and away from El-Sayed in Michigan
Polymarket and Decision Desk HQ on the seven Senate races, as of early 2 November 2026.
On Polymarket two Senate races have moved by four points. In Iowa the Republican Ashley Hinson is at 59 percent, previously 55. In Michigan the Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is at 75 percent, previously 79. The figures are bets, retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 4:05 CET. The comparison figures date from 1 November, 10:40 CET.
The other races on Polymarket:
- Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) 75 percent, previously 73
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) 74 percent, unchanged
- Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 71 percent, previously 69
- Texas: James Talarico (D) 71 percent, unchanged
- Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) 53 percent, previously 52
On Kalshi the bets stand at 76 percent for El-Sayed in Michigan, 69 percent for Jackson in Maine, 69 percent for Talarico in Texas, 70 percent for the Democrats in Alaska and 50 to 50 in Kansas. For Iowa and Ohio the overview shows no figure. Retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 4:05 CET.
The Decision Desk HQ model, as of 1 November 2026, still has the Democrats ahead in all seven races: Kansas 54, Ohio 54, Iowa 55, Texas 59, Alaska 60, Maine 62 and Michigan 73 percent. Its chance of a Democratic Senate majority falls from 63 to 62 percent. Polymarket stays at 72 percent, Kalshi at 72 percent. These are probabilities, not results.
The seven races are on the Senate page. The bars are on election night.