In Canada, 44 percent expect better relations with the US if the Democrats win the congressional election

A new survey from Canada asks what a Democratic victory in the congressional election on 3 November would mean for relations with the US. The institute Abacus Data conducted it for the business outlet The Logic and published it on 2 November 2026 at 12:17 CET.

Methodology. Online survey of 1,500 adults in Canada from 16 to 21 October 2026, weighted by age, gender, education and region. According to Abacus, a comparable random sample would have a margin of error of plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.

If the Democrats win:

• 44 percent expect better relations between Canada and the US.
• 34 percent expect no real difference.
• 8 percent expect worse relations.
• 14 percent are unsure.

Expectations differ by political camp. Among Liberal voters, 55 percent expect an improvement, among Conservative voters 33 percent. Of the Conservatives, 42 percent say it would make no real difference. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, 57 percent expect an improvement.

Beyond the election, respondents are more sceptical. For the next two years, 37 percent expect worse economic relations, 25 percent better ones and 29 percent no change. For the period after President Trump, 57 percent expect an improvement that takes many years, 12 percent a quick return to the way things were and 21 percent a permanent change. 64 percent think Canada should prepare for a relationship that will not return to its former state. 26 percent would wait until politics in the US changes.

David Coletto of Abacus sums it up: "Four in ten believe a Democratic Congress would improve the relationship" (Abacus Data, 2 November 2026; report in The Logic).

The survey reflects expectations, not a forecast of the election outcome. An earlier survey by Liaison Strategies on the wishes of people in Canada is available under Reports. The forecasts for both chambers are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages.