Merz and the Kremlin expect no change of US course from the congressional election
What governments in Berlin, Moscow, Warsaw, and Ottawa are saying before the election, as of 2 November 2026.
Several governments have spoken out in the days before the congressional election. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the Kremlin assume that the election will not fundamentally change US policy. Poland and Canada are aligning their negotiations with Washington with the election date.
Germany. Asked on 30 October in Seoul, Merz said he did not want to speculate about the outcome of the election. “Quite regardless of the outcome of these elections”, the US would change its foreign and foreign economic policy and redefine its interests. Then Germany would have to do the same. According to Reuters, Merz promoted free trade agreements and a new global trade alliance on his trip to Asia. Germany and Europe also had to do more on defense, he said (Reuters via onvista, 30 October 2026, 9:20 CET).
Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov does not expect the election to change the US stance toward Russia. NBC reporter Keir Simmons relayed this on air after a conversation with Peskov. According to the news agency Interfax, Peskov expects politicians in the US and the EU to keep insisting on their demands. That bodes ill for a compromise (Interfax, 30 October 2026, 2:20 CET). There is no direct statement from the Kremlin on this. Interfax is a private agency, not a state outlet.
Poland. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski told the agency PAP that the decision on a permanent US base in Poland lies with the US. He would like it to be made before the congressional election, because politicians are more willing to make concessions before elections. At the same time, he warned against relying too much on any one US administration (Rzeczpospolita, 20 October 2026).
Canada. Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed a phone call with Trump on Sunday, 1 November. Both want to build on recent talks about a trade agreement. The teams are to work on it in the coming weeks, and Canada's languages, culture and sovereignty must be preserved. Global News reads this as meaning there will be no agreement before Tuesday's election (Global News, 1 November 2026).
The voices differ in tone: Berlin wants to respond with its own trade agreements, Moscow sees little room for a compromise. Warsaw wants to use the campaign to secure a commitment. What diplomats at the EU and NATO expect is under Reports. The forecasts for both chambers are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages.