Final Siena poll shows the Democrats ahead in all seven Senate races, including Iowa

The final New York Times and Siena College poll before the election shows the Democrats ahead in all seven contested Senate races. Likely voters were surveyed. The Siena Research Institute published the results on 1 November 2026 US time, in Germany during the night to 2 November.

• Michigan: El-Sayed (D) 53, Rogers (R) 42 percent, margin of error 3.8 points
• Texas: Talarico (D) 50, Paxton (R) 43 percent, margin of error 3.4 points
• Maine: Jackson (D) 51, Collins (R) 45 percent, margin of error 4.7 points
• Kansas: Hamilton (D) 49, Marshall (R) 44, Graham (Libertarian) 4 percent, margin of error 4.4 points
• Ohio: Brown (D) 49, Husted (R) 44 percent, margin of error 4.4 points
• Alaska: Peltola (D) 48, Sullivan (R) 46 percent, margin of error 5.0 points
• Iowa: Turek (D) 48, Hinson (R) 47 percent, margin of error 4.7 points

The Siena page gives no field period and no sample sizes per state. For Maine, the Portland Press Herald, a co-sponsor in Maine, gives 714 likely voters, surveyed in the week before 1 November. The paper puts the margin of error there at 4.3 points. In September, Jackson was still three points behind Collins in this series, according to the Press Herald.

Two races depart from the picture so far. In Iowa the bets have the Republican Hinson ahead, at 59 percent on Polymarket, retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 5:40 CET. In the poll Turek leads by one point. That is well within the margin of error, the race remains open. In Kansas the bets are close to 50 to 50, the poll shows Hamilton five points ahead.

A poll is a snapshot, not a result. The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on election night.