Sabato's Crystal Ball issues final ratings and sees the Democrats at 53 Senate seats

Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia published its final ratings on 2 November 2026. In the Senate, 53 seats are now at least Leans D and 47 at least Leans R. For the Democrats that would be a net gain of six seats. This is in the article by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, last changed around 17:58 CET, retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 19:05 CET.

Until now Sabato had the Democrats narrowly ahead in the Senate at 51 to 52 seats. The authors themselves name that range as their expectation from six days ago.

In the House, 239 seats are at least Leans D and 196 at least Leans R, with no toss-ups. That equals a net 24 seats for the Democrats. Previously Sabato counted 225 D, 193 R, and 17 toss-ups.

On the seven Senate races the text gives these assessments:

• Maine, Ohio: The Democrats have an edge.
• Texas, Kansas: The Democrats are narrow favorites to flip the seats.
• Alaska, Michigan: remain Leans D. Alaska is considered close, Michigan according to Sabato no longer.
• Iowa: The only toss-up race in which Sabato has the Republicans ahead. Ashley Hinson (R) gets an edge in the ratings.

The exact categories for Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas appear only in a table published as an image. It could not be read and is not reproduced here. Ratings are assessments, not results.

The bars are on the Senate and House pages and at election night.