Final Split Ticket model raises the Democrats' Senate chance from 70 to 77 percent

The model by Split Ticket and the magazine The Argument gives the Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the Senate majority. Previously it stood at 70 percent, as of around 31 October. In the House of Representatives, the figure rises from 91 to 92 percent. This is stated in the article by Lakshya Jain of 2 November 2026, by its own account the final update before the election. Retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 12:40 CET.

On average, the model expects the Democrats to gain six seats in the Senate, i.e. 53 to 47. In the House of Representatives, it expects a net gain of 24 seats.

For three of the seven Senate races, the freely accessible part gives probabilities for the Democrats:

• Texas: James Talarico 81 percent, rated Likely D
• Maine: Troy Jackson 73 percent
• Alaska: Mary Peltola 71 percent

The model rates Ohio as Lean D. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton (D) is considered a narrow favorite; a few days ago the model still saw the race at 50 to 50. Iowa remains an open race. Figures for these states and for Michigan are behind the paywall and could not be retrieved.

In Texas, Split Ticket is thus well above Decision Desk HQ at 61 percent, as of 2 November. In the Senate, the model is now close to Race to the WH at 78 percent, as of 31 October, and Poliwave at 77 percent, as of 2 November. These are probabilities, not results.

The bars are on the Senate, House of Representatives and election night pages.