Silver Bulletin sees the Democrats' Senate chances above 80 percent for the first time

In Nate Silver's model, the Democrats' chance of a Senate majority has risen above 80 percent for the first time. In the Silver Bulletin of 2 November 2026, Silver writes that the Democrats' Senate chances rose “for the first time tonight” to a number beginning with an 8. This refers to the run on the evening of 1 November US time, which in Germany was the night to 2 November.

The post gives the exact figure and the individual races only behind the paywall. They could not be retrieved. The last public figure for the model was 77.7 percent, as of 29 October. According to Silver, it had so far been between the Lean D and Likely D levels, i.e. around 75 percent.

The occasion is the final polls by the New York Times and Siena College. They show the Democrats ahead in all seven contested Senate races; there is a separate report on this under Reports. For the House of Representatives, Silver still gives around 95 percent on his overview page, as of 1 November.

With a figure above 80 percent, Silver Bulletin would be above Race to the WH at 78 percent, as of 31 October, and Poliwave at 77 percent, as of 2 November. Decision Desk HQ sees the Democrats at 64 percent, as of 2 November. These are probabilities, not results.

The bars are on the Senate page and on election night. There, the last publicly reported figure remains in place for Silver Bulletin.