New Scrutinel model gives the Democrats 76 percent in the Senate and 95 percent in the House

Another forecast model has joined the field. Scrutinel gives the Democrats a 76 percent chance of a Senate majority and a 95 percent chance in the House of Representatives. The page carries the note “Updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:54 AM EST”, which is 16:54 CET. Retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 19:45 CET. By its own account, the model is based on 200,000 simulations.

On average, Scrutinel expects 52 Senate seats for the Democrats, between 49 and 56 in 80 percent of simulations. In the House it expects 239 seats for the Democrats, between 222 and 258 in 80 percent of simulations.

For the seven Senate races, the page gives these probabilities:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 82 percent
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 80 percent
• Texas: James Talarico (D) 70 percent
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) 68 percent
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) 64 percent
• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) 54 percent
• Iowa: Ashley Hinson (R) 50 percent, the race is open

In the Senate, Scrutinel thus sits between Decision Desk HQ at 64 percent and Split Ticket at 77 percent, both as of 2 November. In Kansas it has Hamilton more clearly ahead than Decision Desk HQ, which has the race at 50 to 50. In Alaska, at 54 percent, it is below Decision Desk HQ at 61 percent and below Polymarket, where Peltola stood at 72.5 percent at 19:40 CET, a bet, not a poll. These are probabilities, not results.

The bars are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages and at election night.