New Poliwave model puts the Democrats at 77 percent in the Senate and 89 percent in the House

With Poliwave there is another forecast model for the congressional election. It gives the Democrats a 77 percent chance of winning the Senate majority and 89 percent in the House of Representatives. It gives the Republicans 15 and 11 percent. The run with 100,000 simulations ended on 2 November 2026 at 3:28 CET and was retrieved around 9:45 CET.

In 8 percent of the simulations, newly elected independents decide the Senate majority. The model does not assign them to either party. On average it expects 52 seats for the Democrats in the Senate and 230 in the House of Representatives.

For three of the seven Senate races, Poliwave gives probabilities for the Democrats:

• Ohio: Sherrod Brown 73 percent
• Iowa: Josh Turek 55 percent
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton 54 percent

For the other four, the page shows only a rating and the expected margin: Michigan Lean D with 5.6 points, Alaska Lean D with 3.5, Maine Lean D with 3.0 and Texas Lean D with 2.8 points. The model rates Iowa and Kansas as toss-ups, each with a 0.6-point margin for the Democrats.

In the Senate, Poliwave is close to Race to the WH at 78 percent, as of 31 October, and well above Decision Desk HQ at 64 percent, as of 2 November. In Ohio, Decision Desk HQ gives Brown 55 percent, Poliwave 73.

Poliwave itself points out that its probabilities have not been tested against past elections. The model does not separately account for the ranked-choice count in Alaska and Maine. These are probabilities, not results.

The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages, the seven races on the Senate page.