On Point Politics model gives the Democrats 87 percent in the Senate and 98 percent in the House

With the On Point Politics model there is another forecast for the congressional election. It gives the Democrats an 87 percent chance of winning the Senate majority and 98 percent in the House of Representatives. The page gives 31 October 2026 as its status date, retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 10:45 CET.

According to its own description, the model works with fundamentals, polls and early votes and simulates the election 2,000 times. The page lists On Point Polling as publisher. It does not name any individuals or a team.

For the seven Senate races, On Point gives the Democrats these chances:

• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed 93 percent
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown 88 percent
• Alaska: Mary Peltola 83 percent
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton 79 percent
• Maine: Troy Jackson 75 percent
• Texas: James Talarico 68 percent
• Iowa: Josh Turek 60 percent

On Point is thus well above the other models. In the Senate, Race to the WH sees 78 percent, as of 31 October, and Decision Desk HQ 64 percent, as of 2 November. In Kansas, Decision Desk HQ gives Hamilton 50 percent, On Point 79. The bets see Hamilton at around 53 percent and the Republican Ashley Hinson ahead in Iowa.

The page does not say whether the model has been tested against past elections. These are probabilities, not results. The other models are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages.