Decision Desk HQ raises the Democrats' Senate chance to 64 percent, Kansas slips to 50 to 50

Decision Desk HQ recalculated its model on 2 November 2026. The Democrats' chance of a majority in the Senate rises from 62 to 64 percent, in the House of Representatives from 83 to 84 percent. That is shown on the overview page with the note “Last updated Nov 2, 3:39 AM”. The page gives no time zone. Retrieved on 2 November 2026 around 8:45 CET.

Two Senate races move the most. In Kansas, the chance of the Democrat Adam Hamilton falls from 54 to 50 percent, so the race is open. In Michigan it rises for Abdul El-Sayed from 73 to 76 percent; the model now lists Michigan as Likely D.

The other races move by one to two points:

• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 63 percent, previously 62, Lean D
• Texas: James Talarico (D) 61 percent, previously 59, Lean D
• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) 61 percent, previously 60, Lean D
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) 55 percent, previously 54, Toss-up
• Iowa: Josh Turek (D) 53 percent, previously 55, Toss-up

The comparison figures date from 1 November 2026. The Senate page of Decision Desk HQ still showed this older status at the same retrieval. The model expects 52 seats for the Democrats in the Senate and 241 in the House of Representatives. These are probabilities, not results.

The seven races are on the Senate page, the bars on the House of Representatives page and on election night.