Abroad, the election is seen as a test of Trump's room to act, not of his course

In the press outside the US, the run-up to the congressional election centers on one question: how much room to act does President Trump keep in the second half of his term? Most voices do not expect his foreign and trade policy course to change fundamentally.

Europe. ZDF correspondent Ulf Röller writes from Brussels that the European capitals are looking “spellbound at the outcome of the election”. In his assessment, Friedrich Merz, Donald Tusk, and Emmanuel Macron are secretly hoping for a course correction. Right-wing populists in Europe, by contrast, fear a defeat for Trump. The three heads of government have not commented on this publicly (ZDFheute, 31 October 2026).

Trade. According to dpa, the German Economic Institute (IW) expects hardly any effect on tariff policy. German companies should count on Trump's course at least until January 2029. In the IW's assessment, even a Democratic majority would be too narrow to override a veto. That takes two thirds in both chambers (Handelsblatt/dpa, 30 October 2026).

Russia and China. According to ZDF reporter Sebastian Ehm, the Kremlin prefers a Republican win but does not show it openly. According to ZDF correspondent Miriam Steimer, Beijing does not comment on the election and points to non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. Both are assessments by the correspondents, not government statements.

Another view. Al Jazeera turns the question around: a Democratic win could harm Europe. Europeans could read it as a sign that democracies recover on their own, and overlook the pressure on Kyiv. Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris says there that the US helped trigger a shift in European migration policy (Al Jazeera, 29 October 2026).

Public mood. The most recent large comparative survey is from Pew Research. Across 36 countries, a median of 23 percent of adults trust Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. 37 percent view the US favorably, 57 percent unfavorably. In Canada 35 percent call the US a reliable partner, compared with 83 percent in 2022. In Germany 23 percent say the US takes the interests of other countries into account, compared with 60 percent three years earlier. Mexico is the only country where the image of the US has improved, from 29 to 40 percent. 42,151 people were surveyed from 8 February to 13 May 2026, months before the election (Pew Research).

The forecasts for both chambers are on the Senate and House of Representatives pages.